New Zealand’s unemployment rate is holding steady—for now. But behind the numbers sits a stark reality: 33,000 fewer people are in work compared to a year ago. So the big question is, when will those jobs return?
Unemployment Rate NZ: A Snapshot
Stats NZ’s latest report shows the unemployment rate in NZ is holding at 5.1% for the March 2025 quarter. That translates to about 156,000 people out of work—and it’s a figure that hasn’t budged since the previous quarter.
But while the rate has plateaued, the number of jobs lost continues to bite. Since the start of this downturn, 33,000 jobs have vanished. For comparison, the Global Financial Crisis wiped out 59,000 jobs over a much longer period—so this drop has been fast and sharp.
Who’s Feeling It the Most?
Spoiler: not everyone is riding the same wave.
- Young workers (15–29) have taken the biggest hit in this cycle.
- People without formal qualifications—especially those with no NCEA or lower secondary—are overrepresented among the unemployed.
- Auckland, Gisborne-Hawke’s Bay, and Wellington are leading the job loss pack.
Meanwhile, some regions like Otago have gained jobs, largely thanks to tourism and local industry resilience.
Older Kiwis Are Hanging On
Another trend? Older workers aren’t budging.
Employment among 65+ New Zealanders is climbing, with many hanging on to jobs longer—either by choice or necessity.
Economist Shamubeel Eaqub puts it bluntly:
“Older people are working more, and younger, less-qualified Kiwis are being left behind.”
Will the Jobs Return in 2025?
That depends on who you ask. Here’s the general outlook:
- Infometrics economist Matthew Allman says we might see recovery start by late 2025—but global uncertainty could delay things.
- BNZ’s chief economist Mike Jones expects the unemployment rate NZ could still peak at 5.5% before it improves, possibly late this year or even 2026.
- The current uptick in optimism? Still a bit shaky. Job ads remain low, which suggests employers aren’t rushing to hire.
So, we’re in wait-and-see territory.
Is This the Floor—or Just a Pause?
Eaqub says this slump is less brutal than the GFC, but still worrying.
“We’ve found a floor,” he notes, “but it’s a very tentative one.”
There’s been some job growth in the latest quarter, but it’s mostly part-time roles—a trend that doesn’t offer much confidence for full-time job seekers.
And let’s not forget: people are still leaving NZ, chasing better prospects overseas. But this exodus hasn’t been enough to balance the labour market. The employment rate has fallen across all age groups, meaning fewer Kiwis are working, period.
So, What’s Next?
Right now, New Zealand’s economy is in a “slow n’ low” growth phase, with firms cautious about hiring. But if businesses begin advertising roles again in the second half of the year—as some predict—we could see the first steps towards recovery.
Still, a full bounce-back to pre-downturn job levels? That might be a 2026 story.
